The Art of Pitching

There is a lot more to pitching than just throwing strikes.  There is an art to pitching that can give the pitcher an advantage in his duel with the batter.  This post will talk about how to maximize your efficiency as a pitcher and techniques to get an advantage over the batter.  For the hitter, it also provides insight into the mind of the pitcher and what he is thinking and what he might do in various situations.

Know Your Opponent

One of the best ways to maximize the effectiveness of a pitching battery is to know your opponent.  This takes two forms.

First, if you have played a team before, basic statistics from the scorebook will show the tendencies of the hitter, if they are a power hitter (more extra base hits), a hitter for average (high average, mostly singles), or an ineffective hitter (low on base percentage).  Stats can also show the batters that are more disciplined because they will have a significantly higher on base percentage than batting average meaning they will not chase outside the zone.

It can also show the location where they most often hit - are they a pull hitter or more up the middle?  A pull hitter may be more susceptible to an outside pitch.  Are they a ground ball hitter or fly ball hitter?  A ground ball hitter may be more susceptible to a high pitch.

If you watch Major League Baseball you will see that the catcher normally wears an armband with the opponents' batters' critical information.  This may include the pitches they want to throw to this batter based on the analysis described above.  This gives a bit of a head start on how to pitch a particular hitter.

If you have not seen a team before and don't have stats on their hitters, then you will have to see how each handles the at-bat the first time through the order and use that information to inform upcoming at-bats, capitalizing on weaknesses in previous at-bats and avoiding the batter's strengths.

Disrupt the Batter

The goal of every pitcher is to keep a batter off balance and reduce his chances of getting on base.  The most common ways of doing this are changing the velocity, changing the location (line of sight), and legally deceiving the batter.

Change the Velocity

At the very minimum, every pitcher over about 10 years old should have two pitches, a fastball and some off-speed pitch (normally a changeup).  In my experience, a 9 or 10 year old pitcher who can throw 60% of his pitches in the strike zone can dominate by complimenting his fastball with a change-up.

Throwing the change-up, however, is only effective after establishing the fastball.  Once a batter has seen the fastball a time or two they will start to adjust their timing to match.  This is what makes the change-up so effective.  The batter will prepare to time up the fastball and when the ball is flying 10 mph slower than they expect they are way out ahead of it and normally will either miss or make poor contact.

The opposite order can also work the second or third time through the order.  If a player is standing up to the plate for the first pitch of the at-bat, starting with the changeup then coming back with a fastball can also be quite effective.  Keeping the batter guessing will reduce his ability to make solid contact because he doesn't know if he should start the swing early for the fastball or lay back and wait on the change-up.

One caveat for this principle is when the batter cannot handle the speed they are seeing.  If the batter shows that they are way behind the pitch or steps out because they are scared of the velocity, the best approach is normally just to throw another fastball for strike 3, retire the batter, and don't waste a pitch on the pitcher's arm while giving the player the opportunity to hit a slower pitch that they may be able to handle.

Change the Line of Sight

The other way to disrupt a batter without even having to change the pitch is to change the line of site of the hitter.  Throwing three pitches in a row at the same location will give a batter the opportunity to practice a couple of times to make good contact on the third pitch.

To avoid this, a catcher can change the location of the target between pitches.  For example, starting at the bottom of the zone and moving to the top of the zone, or starting with outside pitches and then moving to the inside.  This keeps the batter guessing where the ball will be and keeping him from being able to setup for a specific pitch to get the good part of the bat on the ball.

As a general rule, inside pitches are more effective than outside pitches, but this also is determined to some degree by how the batter sets up on the plate.  A batter crowding the plate will be more susceptible to an inside pitch and a batter standing well away from the plate an outside pitch.

Legal Deception

Illegal deception is an illegal pitch and can result in a ball being called against the pitcher.  Legally deceiving the batter involves having multiple pitches that look the same out of the pitcher's hand. The best example of this is when using a fastball and a breaking ball in succession.

As an example, if a pitcher throws a fastball on the outside corner for a strike, the batter will be thinking "he won't get me with that one again".  If the pitcher can then throw a 2 seamer, cutter, or slider on the same line but breaks out of the zone, the batter is likely to swing thinking he's getting another of those outside fastballs.  This can be highly effective when the breaking pitch starts on the same line as the fastball.

Then, having seen two pitches on the outside, changing the line of site with a fastball on the inside corner can be very effective.  NOTE: If the batter is a free swinger and chased two pitches on the outside, a third pitch even further outside might result in strike 3.

This technique can also be quite effective when starting with an inside pitch - even out of the strike zone to the inside - and then coming back with a breaking ball that starts inside but ends in the zone.  If the first pitch catches the inside corner of the strike zone and the second pitch is effective you now have an 0-2 count which results in a high chance of getting the batter out (more about this below).  This can be especially effective on timid batters.

Also note that this technique doesn't have to be thrown in consecutive pitches.  Setting the batter up with an inside fastball on the first pitch of the at bat, throwing something low and outside and coming back with the cutter/slider, etc. on the third pitch that is on the same line as the first pitch can also be quite effective.

Avoid repetition.  If you use the same sequence every time then it is no longer deceiving and the batters will start to learn your patterns.  They will then talk to each other and the whole team will know your patterns making the strategy much less effective.  More about this later.

Use the Whole Strike Zone to your Advantage

The chart on the right depicts the average batting average of all hitters in Major League baseball in 2022 with an 0 - 0 count. 

This chart shows the probability of a base hit based on where in the zone the pitch is thrown.  The darker the red the higher the batting average the darker the blue the lower the batting average.  White is average.

The green outline in the center is the strike zone.

As expected, balls thrown in the "center square" result in a lot of hits, that is the heart of the strike zone which I like to call the "BP zone" as this is where most pitches are thrown during batting practice and even poor hitters can usually make good contact with a ball in this zone.

In pitch counts where the number of balls is low (less than 3), a pitcher should attempt to keep the pitch out of that red zone in the middle of the strike zone as pitches in that zone will more likely result in a base hit.

Notably, pitches at the top of the strike zone have a lower batting average than pitches lower in the strike zone and inside pitches are more effective than outside pitches.

Catchers should not set up a pitch in the center square with less than 3 balls (unless they are executing an intentional unintentional walk).  As the ball count goes up the glove gets setup closer to the center square.  With 3 balls, the catcher sets up directly in the center square and asks for the pitcher's "go-to" pitch and then lets the defense do it's job.

Pitching at Various Counts

The following information is based on All MLB American League plate appearances between 2015 and 2017.

The chart shows the on-base percentage on the pitch following the labeled count.

A few interesting things to note from this diagram:

1. Any count with 2 strikes results in a base runner less than 20% of the time (except for the full count).  The sooner you can get there the better.
2. Any count with 3 balls results in a base runner more than 45% of the time and with a 3 - 0 count, 99% of the time.  Avoid 3 ball counts at all costs.
3. The difference in 0 - 1 and 1 - 0 is 23 points, but being ahead in the count keeps the pitcher in control and this advantage is priceless.
4. The difference in moving from a 1 - 1 count to a 1 - 2 count vs a 2 - 1 count is 172 points.  That's a 17% difference in OBP based on a single pitch.  This is a critical pitch in the at-bat.  It is best to throw a good pitch in the strike zone (but not in the center square) to get ahead.
5. Going from a 2 - 2 count to a 3 - 2 count increases a batter's chance of getting on base from 19% to 45%.  It is best not to waste a pitch here, with 2 strikes the batter will expand the strike zone, the ball should be outside the center square but well within the strike zone.

For a pitcher, a few things become clear.  First, establishing strike 1 is important.  Once you fall behind in the count you have to throw 2 strikes to get back ahead.  Contrast this with the 0 - 1 count where if you throw one more strike you have an 83% chance of retiring the batter.

Getting into a 3 ball count results in a 45 - 99% chance of the batter reaching base.  The pitcher should stay out of this count at all costs (unless working an intentional unintentional walk).  This means that once the count gets to 2 balls (regardless of the strikes) the pitcher must become much more conservative and throw their best pitch to establish a strike and stay out of the 3 ball count.

A walk is a guaranteed base runner, so any time the count gets to 3 - 0 the pitcher should throw his best pitch into the "center square" and trust the defense to retire the runner if he gets a hit.  This way you at least have a chance to get the runner out.  This is a general principle.  If there are 2 outs and first base is open and the clean-up hitter is at the plate, the pitcher may be willing to give up the walk to get to a batter they would prefer to pitch to.  This is a judgement call that's made by knowing your opponent (see the first section above).

If you can get to an 0 - 2 count there is negligible difference in OBP from there to a 1 - 2, or 2 - 2 count.  If the pitcher has a low overall pitch count, this is the time to try the tertiary pitches that you have been working on¹.  A potential exception to this is pitchers with a high pitch count.  They may not want to throw away pitches so they can keep extra pitches off their arm and go deeper in the game.

Every pitch is meaningful either to get a strike on the batter or work on pitches in a game situation.  Never waste a pitch by intentionally throwing a fastball well out of the strike zone hoping the batter will chase - most times they will not and you've just wasted a pitch.

The difference in 1 - 2 and 2 -1 is significant (172 points).  The 1 - 1 count is the perfect time to throw your best pitch in a place that is in the strike zone but not near the center square.  Then once you get to 2 strikes, you can throw your best pitch just a bit out of the strike zone for the K (see Pitch Selection below).

Pitch Selection

Pitching with an 0-2 Count

The below charts show stats for all MLB hitters for the 2022 season with two strikes and no balls when the pitcher throws a four seam fastball.  The inner green outline is the strike zone.  Click on the chart to expand it and make the numbers easier to read.

This data shows that in the specified conditions, a batter will swing at a ball slightly above the strike zone (1 - 2 ball widths) more than 85% of the time and they will whiff (swing and miss) 30% of the time. The batting average on these pitches is less than .120, less than any other area near the zone.  With an 0 - 2 or 1 - 2 count throwing a ball does not significantly impact the batter's chances of getting on base.  Throwing a pitch outside of the zone with a 2 - 2 count, however, is not recommended because getting to a 3 - 2 count results in a .450 OBP because you have to throw the ball at the center square to avoid the possibility of a walk and the OBP from a ball in the center square is close to .300.

For my money, the best pitch to throw with 2 strikes and less than 2 balls is a high fastball just out of the strike zone (1 - 2 ball widths).  It's easy to throw, hard to hit, and hard to lay off.

Charts courtesy of Baseball Savant

A previously stated, showing a batter a pitch in this situation that they haven't seen before is also a great way to get a K.  

"Play the game the way the game asks to be played"²

As a general rule, a launch angle of 10 degrees or less is a ground ball,, 10 - 25 degrees is a line drive, and 25 - 50 degrees is a fly ball.  A pitcher can influence where the ball goes by where he locates the ball. 

 

The chart on the left shows the likely result from a pitch in the specified location, the green box is the strike zone.

With a runner on first and 1 out, if a pitcher can induce a hard ground ball to the infield, the chances of getting a double play go way up.  Locating a pitch down and in our down and away can induce the batter to ground into a double play.

If the batter is a free swinger with a big swing, a pitcher may be able to induce a pop out or a strike out by throwing up and in or up and away.

Throwing the ball in the middle of the plate should be avoided unless there are 3 balls, and middle up but still in the zone is the biggest danger zone.  Statistics show that most home runs come off the bat at 90 - 100 MPH with a launch angle of 25 - 35 degrees.  The "Home Run box" in the chart indicates the position in the strike zone that most ideal to achieve those numbers - especially if the pitch is a fastball.

 

Falling into Patterns

It is easy to fall into the trap of always throwing a high fastball on an 0 - 2 count.  Batters will learn this pattern and setup for the high fastball or have no intention of swinging because they know what's coming.  A good coach and good hitters will start to identify patterns after just a few at-bats.  Avoiding patterns will keep the batter from knowing what's coming and taking advantage of it.

Telegraphing Pitches

Pitchers can also fall into the trap of using different mechanics on certain pitches and the batter can recognize the pitch selection based on the mechanics being used by the pitcher.

A good example of this is manipulating the ball in the glove.  Most pitchers (and other players) instinctively hold the ball in a 4-seam fastball grip.  When they put the ball into their glove while coming set and they are throwing a curve they have to spin the ball 90 degrees to get the proper grip.  If the batter sees the pitcher moving the ball round in the glove he is often telegraphing that the pitch will be a breaking ball, especially when they are in a count where that makes sense.

To avoid telegraphing pitches the pitcher can always manipulate the ball in the glove before throwing a pitch.  Alternatively, this could be another means of deception by manipulating the ball in the glove and then throwing a fastball.  This could get the batter setup to hit a curve and get a fastball unexpectedly.

It is also very common for younger pitchers to use different mechanics for fastballs, change-ups, and curve balls, making them easy to recognize by a hitter.  The mechanics for all of these pitches should be the same, only the grip changes.

Saving pitches

For starting pitchers who may see each batter in the order 2 or 3 times and has three or more pitches in their arsenal, you can also keep the batters guessing by saving one or two pitches for the later innings.

A good hitting team will talk amongst themselves about what they see from a pitcher to help their teammates know what to expect.  After the first couple of innings a team will feel like they know everything a pitcher has to offer.  A pitcher can  continue to throw batters off their game by showing them something in later innings that they haven't seen in the earlier innings.